Such a scenario could prove too optimistic if Squarespace’s marketing spend as a percent of revenue continues to increase, thereby limiting margin improvement, or it raises prices to improve profitability, thereby limiting user and revenue growth potential. The company would also generate $201 million in NOPAT, up from -$3 million in 2021. In this scenario, Squarespace would still generate $2.4 billion in revenue (in 2029), which is 3x its 2021 revenue and 103% of Etsy’s 2021 revenue. SQSP is worth just $8/share today – a 68% downside.
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